Probability

==&nbsp D20 Probabilty== Rolling a d20 means that the probability of getting any number is the same of getting any other number. This probabilty is 1 in 20. When we look at the probabilty of getting, say, a 15 or higher means that 1 in 4 times you will get the result.

1st Problem
A fighter can easily obtain a +8 to attack rolls, and around a +11 if they specialize in a weapon. This means that to hit an AC of 18 they have a 1 in 2 chance to hit with a +8 (3 in 5 to hit if they have a plus +11).

2nd Problem
As the playes go up levels they get magic items, attribute increases and more all

add to thier bonuses. Where the difficultities only increase by every 2 or 3 levels. Which means that as the difficulty increases so do the players bonuses and they increase about at the same level which means that the probabilities do not get any more diffiult.

1st Solution
The players do not get specific level increases they can just roll a set amount of dice and get very little increases. This would be more like say the ACT chart from Gamma Wold 3rd Edition. 3rd ed, the players progresed rather slowly and the monsters didn't have specific levels that they attacked players which means that players could fight a rather difficult monster at rank 1. The problem with this is the actual chart, its clunky.

2nd Solution
Using the d6 method and the accumulation of success when a 5 or 6 is rolled. Specific difficulties are based on needing say 3 success and you have 5 dice to do it on. Which means you have a 1 in 3 probability of rolling 1 success per die or about a 1 in 5 (21%) in doing so. The problem with this is increasing the difficulty. If something is easy and you need 2 success from 5 dice its a 54% chance. Then a medium 3 success from 5 dice it decreases to 21%. Finally a hard 4 success from 5 dice is only a 5% chance. The problem with this is that increasing the difficulty drastically reduces chances.

3rd Solution
Using another d6 option is adding the dice. This makes more of a bell curve in successes. Having 2d6 and trying to get 7 or higher is about 58% percent. Getting a 10 or higher is 17%. This is a bell curve. The problem with this is that it can become rather complicated.